Author Topic: Ukraine Situation  (Read 32583 times)

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Offline zeker

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« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 05:05:23 PM by zeker »
of all the things I,ve lost.. I miss my mind, the most

Offline livingpower

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Re: Ukraine Situation
« Reply #221 on: July 26, 2014, 11:47:15 AM »
Australia now planning to send in armed police and military to search for bodies and secure evidence at MH17 crash site.


http://www.smh.com.au/world/australia-risks-inflaming-ukraine-conflict-by-sending-armed-police-to-mh17-site-analysts-20140726-zx3mo.html

Offline zeker

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elena speaks from ukraine
« Reply #222 on: July 29, 2014, 08:27:55 AM »
of all the things I,ve lost.. I miss my mind, the most

Offline icrcc

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Re: Ukraine Situation
« Reply #223 on: July 29, 2014, 07:22:16 PM »
Propaganda.  Don' be taken in by a pretty face. :o

They are just "residents" protecting their houses. Sure with tanks and sophisticated missile batteries.
It may never happen. Best to be prepared just in case.

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Offline zeker

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Re: Ukraine Situation
« Reply #224 on: July 29, 2014, 08:12:18 PM »
I wasnt looking at her face.. :))


I was.  :o
« Last Edit: July 30, 2014, 08:35:36 AM by icrcc »
of all the things I,ve lost.. I miss my mind, the most

Offline GrouchyPrepper

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Re: Ukraine Situation
« Reply #225 on: July 29, 2014, 08:50:04 PM »
My what  nice big  guns she has   :o

Offline icrcc

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Re: Ukraine Situation
« Reply #226 on: July 30, 2014, 08:36:23 AM »
I wasnt looking at her face.. :))


I was.  :o
It may never happen. Best to be prepared just in case.

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Offline zeker

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ready..set... almost.. go
« Reply #227 on: August 12, 2014, 01:16:08 PM »
http://rt.com/news/179740-humanitari...ussia-ukraine/


Kiev: Russia's humanitarian convoy will not be allowed into Ukraine
Published time: August 12, 2014 10:06
Edited time: August 12, 2014 10:53
Get short URL
Truck convoy sets out from Alabino near Moscow, will deliver humanitarian relief aid to Ukraine. (RIA Novosti / Maksim Blinov)

Truck convoy sets out from Alabino near Moscow, will deliver humanitarian relief aid to Ukraine. (RIA Novosti / Maksim Blinov)
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Kiev intends to hold up the internationally-supervised Russian humanitarian aid convoy meant for East Ukraine for at least a week, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military said.

Russian humanitarian convoy departs to E. Ukraine (VIDEO)

Ukraine said the time is needed for the International Red Cross, which is contributing to the Moscow-initiated mission, to establish where the aid should go in the Ukrainian region engulfed by civil war.

The convoy of 280 trucks dispatched on Tuesday “did not pass the ICC certification,” Andrey Lysenko said.

Presidential aide Valery Chaliy said Kiev wants the entire cargo to be unloaded on the border and transferred to Red Cross vehicles.

“We will not allow any escort of the Russian Emergencies Ministry or Russian military,” he said. “Ukraine will take responsibility for this procedure.”

Earlier, Moscow said that the humanitarian mission had been agreed by all parties concerned.

Russia has sent some 2,000 tons of aid to Ukraine, including food, medicine, sleeping bags and power generators.

The cargo is meant for the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which have seriously suffered in more than three months of warfare, as Ukrainian troops used heavy artillery, bomber aircraft and tanks to advance on cities controlled by the militias.

On the brink of survival: No electricity, water, communications in besieged Lugansk, E. Ukraine

Kiev earlier accused Moscow of trying to conduct a stealth invasion of Ukraine under a guise of humanitarian aid, saying that Russian troops would be posing as guards of the convoy while actually tasked with starting an offensive.

The narrative was supported by some western countries, which said that any humanitarian mission not backed by Kiev would be considered an attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Russia dismissed the accusations as nonsense.

In another media briefing on Monday evening, Lysenko stated that the humanitarian convoy to Ukraine was organized “under an agreement between [President] Petro Poroshenko and the International Red Cross,” and that Russia “wants to present this mission as its own initiative” as a publicity stunt.

Lysenko claimed that the convoy consists of repainted military trucks and is accompanied by an S-300 air defense system, according to the news agency Ukraine National News.

He didn’t elaborate on why Russia would need to send a system that is meant to protect key strategic positions from enemy aircraft and missiles, but is useless in guarding a convoy of vehicles on the move.
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sanjay...b_5659699.html

The crisis in Ukraine continues to get worse against a backdrop of conflicting signals.

Pro-Russian separatists have called for a ceasefire but Ukrainian forces continue to pound them in Donetsk. At the same time, the Ukrainian government says it is willing to accept an international aid mission to prevent humanitarian catastrophe as long as Russia stays out, but NATO said today that there is a "high probability" of Russia invading Ukraine.

To understand what might happen here, we need to take a step back and analyze the complicated long game that Russian President Vladimir Putin is really playing.

Sanctions
Last week, in response to economic sanctions by the West, Russia hit back with trade sanctions of its own. The Russian government banned the import of many food and agricultural products from Europe and the U.S., a move that could cost Western food suppliers more than $17 billion in lost revenue annually.

But given that Russia imports 75 percent of its food from Europe and the U.S., this move could also hurt the Russians since the underdeveloped farming sector in the country will not be able to fill the shortfall, and food prices for Russian consumers will rise.

Ukraine
In Ukraine, Russia basically has three stark choices.

If there is a ceasefire, Russia can enter the territory under the Trojan Horse pretext of a peacekeeping mission, but the Ukrainian government is unlikely to ever allow that. If the fighting continues, Russia has to find a way to supply the rebels with enough arms and ammunition to battle the intensified efforts of Ukrainian forces, which will be extremely difficult. The third choice is to simply invade. But even if any of these actions actually worked, they would widen the rift between Russia and the West and at best prolong the painful economic sanctions, at worst bring Russia to a state of war with NATO.

So the big question is how far will Putin go?

Probably much further than we think. The overarching reason is that the Ukraine situation isn't really about conquest but about using the military as a political and economic tool. Hardline governments like Putin's derive their power from conflict, both internally and abroad. That doesn't mean that the Russian President wants outright war with NATO but the threat of one is enough to keep the West on edge, and Russia in a position of influence in world affairs. Brinksmanship is simply part of that game.


The other reason for Putin's intransigence on Ukraine is economic. While trade sanctions could be devastating for Russia in the long term, Putin is betting that Europe and the U.S. will be forced to negotiate with his country once the impact of those sanctions start being felt on both sides of the divide. As the food sanctions imposed by Russia clearly indicate, economic punishment can run both ways and Putin is playing that card expertly right now.

From a public relations standpoint, lingering sanctions which deprive ordinary Russian people of necessary resources will turn the Russian public even further against the West and enable Putin to pursue a new Cold War. The only difference is that this Cold War will be fought more on the economic battlefield than a military one, with occasional proxy wars (like the one in Ukraine) being used to provoke and escalate hostilities.

Timing
Contrary to what some analysts think, Putin is not in a corner but exactly where he wants to be, and as such will continue to push the envelope. It is likely that Russia will intervene directly in the region sooner rather than later in order to exercise more control - and to prod the West.


With the U.S. embroiled in a potentially long battle with ISIS militants in Iraq, and because of wider security concerns in the Middle East, Putin knows it would be strategically difficult for America to take on yet another major conflict. Moreover, with midterm elections coming up soon, President Obama may be reluctant to take military action in multiple theaters and risk angering voters already suffering from anti-war fatigue due to Iraq and Afghanistan. This creates a window of opportunity for Russia to flex some muscle with fewer consequences to worry about.

Endgame
Putin also knows that once Russian forces go in, the U.S. will have no choice but to act militarily through NATO. However, given America's constraints mentioned above and given the astronomical risks of a direct conflict between Russia and the West, any escalation will inevitably force both sides to the negotiating table on Ukraine and the sanctions as well.

More importantly, and this is the real kicker, the price that Putin will charge for backing down in Ukraine will be higher than simply the lifting of sanctions. In order to avoid giving Putin a massive symbolic victory through the annexation of Ukraine, the West will have to offer economic concessions to Russia above and beyond the resumption of trade, which will make the Russian Premier a hero in his country and reestablish Russia as a formidable player in international politics.

What could such concessions be? One of the most strategic (from Russia's perspective) would be cutting edge military and commercial technology from the U.S. that Russia needs for its modernization and to boost its sluggish economy, which grew at an extremely anemic 1.3 percent in 2013. The Russians, like the Chinese, know that real national growth will not come from military power alone but from economic development and cooperation with the West - which, of course, is the great irony here.

The important thing to recognize is that on Russia's part, the conflict over Ukraine is clever theater designed to consolidate Putin's power within, to show off Russia's still-potent military prowess to the world, and to coerce the West into a more pliable stance on trade, especially new technology.

This is, quite simply, the modern Cold War - complex, paradoxical, but in some ways not that different from the previous one.

Sanjay Sanghoee is a political and business commentator. He is also the author of two thriller novels. Please visit his website at www.sanghoee.com and follow him on Twitter
 
 
« Last Edit: August 12, 2014, 01:17:53 PM by zeker »
of all the things I,ve lost.. I miss my mind, the most

Offline icrcc

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Re: Ukraine Situation
« Reply #228 on: August 13, 2014, 11:39:08 AM »
That convoy is going to develop into a risky situation. What is Putin up to? Is he trying to make Russia look like a savior to the people in the war torn area of the Ukraine or is he brininhg in more
"supplies" to prolong the conflict? Time will tell.
It may never happen. Best to be prepared just in case.

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Offline zeker

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aid convoy or trojan horse?
« Reply #229 on: August 15, 2014, 12:06:00 PM »
Aid convoy stops short of border as Russian military vehicles enter UkraineArmoured personnel carriers and support vehicles cross the border, while the 280-truck convoy comes to a halt separately
  • The Guardian,                         Friday 15 August 2014
Armoured personnel carriers with Russian military plates move towards the Ukraine borderArmoured personnel carriers in Russia move towards the Ukraine border. Photograph: Shaun WalkerThe white trucks of humanitarian aid rumbled through Russia in a convoy stretching for miles, moving slowly southwards on the M4 highway, amid a landscape of fertile fields and Ladas stopped at the roadside – their boots overflowing with watermelons for sale.
But, while the trucks came to a halt well short of Ukraine's border, a different Russian convoy did make the crossing into Ukrainian territory late on Thursday evening.
The Guardian saw a column of 23 armoured personnel carriers, supported by fuel trucks and other logistics vehicles with official Russian military plates, travelling towards the border near the Russian town of Donetsk – about 200km away from Donetsk, Ukraine.After pausing by the side of the road until nightfall, the convoy crossed into Ukrainian territory, using a rough dirt track and clearly crossing through a gap in a barbed wire fence that demarcates the border. Armed men were visible in the gloom by the border fence as the column moved into Ukraine. Kiev has lost control of its side of the border in this area.
The trucks are unlikely to represent a full-scale official Russian invasion, and it was unclear how far they planned to travel inside Ukrainian territory and how long they would stay. But it was incontrovertible evidence of what Ukraine has long claimed – that Russian troops are active inside its borders.
It was also ironic given the attention to the huge convoy of humanitarian aid that moved slowly southwards on the M4 highway on Thursday. As the convoy moved closer to the stretch of border controlled by pro-Russian rebels it was hard to escape the feeling that Moscow's aid convoy had the potential to turn into a slow-motion disaster, perhaps even prompting a moment that could push Ukraine and Russia out of the messy conflict fought by proxies into full-blown, open engagement.
According to Moscow, the convoy is a goodwill gesture, packed with much-needed aid for the residents of eastern Ukraine. In Kiev's view, the convoy is at best a cynical ploy; at worst, a kind of Trojan centipede, winding its way into the country at a border point no longer controlled by Ukrainian forces, the nature of its cargo taken only on trust.
The humanitarian convoy stalled for 24 hours in the city of Voronezh during Wednesday, but set out at dawn on Thursday.
At one point, with President Vladimir Putin more than two hours late to address a gathering of top Russian officials in newly annexed Crimea, and the first lorries in the convoy taking the turnoff from the main M4 highway towards rebel-controlled Luhansk in Ukraine, there were whispers that perhaps Putin's announcement was being delayed to announce that the trucks would enter Ukraine whether or not the country's authorities gave the green light, a move Kiev has said would be seen as an invasion.The 280-truck convoy on the road in Russia            The aid convoy on the road in Russia. Photograph: Itar-Tass/Corbis         In the end, the convoy ground to a halt shortly after the turnoff, still about 20 miles from the border and, over a period of two hours, the vehicles parked in neat lines, throwing up clouds of dust.
Russia's foreign ministry has said there are 262 vehicles in the convoy, including 200 carrying aid. Some of the drivers put the number at 270. Already, the start of a field camp had been erected on the site, with a dozen large tents and a shower area where the men could wash off the grime and sweat of the long journey.
The trucks could be stacked with weapons, some said. Others claimed they could be carrying advance supplies for a later Russian invasion using the ground troops that have hovered in border areas. There was also a suggestion that the circus around the mysterious convoy could distract attention from other Russian moves, a fear apparently justified given the military column that crossed the borderon Thursday night.
The hundreds of men driving the trucks in the convoy were all dressed in identical khaki T-shirts, shorts and caps, and there was certainly something military about their bearing.
For some observers, the large convoy moving with obvious top-level coordination and accompanied by numerous vehicles with official Russian military plates brought back memories of the "little green men" involved in the annexation of Crimea back in March. Wearing green uniforms without insignia, those men claimed to be local volunteers, although they were clearly highly trained Russian special operatives. Despite denying their presence all through the annexation, Putin later admitted that Russian military units had been involved.But, with their easy manner, lack of discipline and in some cases physiques that hinted more at beer halls than special forces training grounds, the "little brown men" of the aid convoy are clearly not the highly trained elite troops used in the annexation of Crimea.
In general, the men did not want to speak about who they were or how they had come to be involved in the convoy. One said he was a volunteer from a non-governmental organisation, but clammed up when asked for the name of the organisation.
"I'm being paid to do a job here, not to stand around talking to journalists," he said when pressed, and then looked sheepish when reminded he had just claimed to be an unpaid volunteer.
Others said they were military veterans but claimed not to be serving currently. It is possible the convoy was assembled using the semi-official method Russia has used to find volunteers to fight for rebel separatists in eastern Ukraine – phone calls from military veterans' organisations offering work.
Those at the site were dismissive of fears in Ukraine that the convoy may be carrying secret military cargo. Two of the men in brown, who would not give their names but said they were "in charge of the cargo", offered to open any of the trucks picked at random and show what was inside. Men scrambled to untie the cords securing the tarpaulin on two of the trucks chosen by the Guardian and other journalists at the site.
Inside one were white sacks filled with buckwheat, while the other contained stacked cardboard boxes. Three men pulled the tape from one of the boxes to reveal newly packed sleeping bags. As the tarpaulin was pulled away, the original military green of the trucks was revealed; their exteriors apparently only recently painted white.
Nobody would say how long they planned to be there: a few hours or several days. Neither was it clear whether a decision had been taken in Moscow to move only with approval from the International Committee of the Red Cross, or whether a decision would be made to move ahead regardless, if diplomatic wrangling takes too long.Map of Russian convoy to Ukraine            Map of Russian convoy to Ukraine.         A lone car with diplomatic plates and Red Cross insignia arrived at the location of the convoy on Thursday afternoon. Two men inside confirmed they were Red Cross officials based in Moscow but refused to give any further information about whether they had travelled with the convoy, what plans there were for inspection, or whether more representatives were on the way. On Thursday evening, the organisation tweeted that "initial contact" with the convoy had been made, and there were "many practical details to be clarified".
The trucks do indeed appear to contain humanitarian aid, and there is undoubtedly a grim situation in major towns in eastern Ukraine, as thousands don't have water and electricity, and are sheltering in basements to avoid shelling. Nevertheless, Kiev's concern about the convoy, with its thinly disguised military undertones, is understandable. Two military helicopters accompanied the convoy south, and flew just a few dozen metres from the ground as it came to a halt. The head and tail of the convoy included a number of vehicles with official Russian military plates.Separately, there were several military transporters loaded with artillery and tanks visible on the main M4 road during the day. Locals say the sightings have been ever more frequent in recent months, with Ukraine accusing Moscow of shelling its territory from inside Russia, and transporting heavy weaponry across the border, including perhaps the BUK missile system which is believed to have been used to shoot down a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet last month.
The armoured column seen by the Guardian appeared to be further evidence of Russia's incursions, which the Kremlin has repeatedly denied.
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Offline icrcc

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Re: Ukraine Situation
« Reply #230 on: August 16, 2014, 01:58:29 PM »
It could also be a decoy. While everyone is averting their attention to the mysterious convoy who knows what else might be going on somewhere else?
It may never happen. Best to be prepared just in case.

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Offline zeker

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obama to interrupt his vacation
« Reply #231 on: August 17, 2014, 07:22:24 PM »
The story breaking tonight on Reuters (via the Times of Oman) indicates exactly how serious this situation has become:


‘Nato to respond if Russian troops infiltrate Ukraine’
<blockquote>By Reuters
August 17, 2014 , 9 : 49 pm GST

If Russia tries to infiltrate troops into a Nato country,  even out of official military uniform as it did before it annexed  Ukraine’s Crimea, Nato will respond militarily, the alliance’s top  commander said in an interview published on Sunday.

Soldiers wearing uniforms without national markings were deployed when Russia entered Crimea from late February.

Although President Vladimir Putin initially denied involvement, he admitted in April that Russian forces had been active there.

Kiev and Western governments are now waiting to see if  Moscow will intervene to support besieged rebels in Ukraine’s  Russian-speaking east. Some defence experts have said Putin might also  look to the former Soviet republics in the Baltics which have large  ethnic Russian minorities, such as Estonia or Latvia.

US Air Force General Philip Breedlove, Nato’s Supreme  Allied Commander Europe, said although Nato had no plans to intervene in  non-Nato member Ukraine, Nato countries in eastern Europe needed to  start preparing for a possible threat from “little green men” —  referring to soldiers in unmarked uniforms.

“The most important work to prepare a nation for the  problem of ‘little green men’, or organising of Russian  (speaking)population, it happens first. It happens now,” Breedlove said  in an interview published online by German newspaper Die Welt.

“How do we now train, organise, equip the police forces  and the military forces of (allied) nations to be able to deal with  this?” he said.

“If we see these actions taking place in a Nato nation  and we are able to attribute them to an aggressor nation, that is  Article 5.

Now, it is a military response,” he said.</blockquote>
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Re: Ukraine Situation
« Reply #232 on: August 19, 2014, 03:34:36 PM »
It could also be a decoy. While everyone is averting their attention to the mysterious convoy who knows what else might be going on somewhere else?
.   

Decoys probably do not work so well in the era of mass satellite surveillance.

Offline icrcc

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Re: Ukraine Situation
« Reply #233 on: August 19, 2014, 10:52:48 PM »
I was thinking alone the lines of a media decoy.
It may never happen. Best to be prepared just in case.

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Offline zeker

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what kinda bomb is that
« Reply #234 on: August 20, 2014, 05:25:41 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8ARZNx1epU
 
footage of bomb and blast in ukraine. photographer is barefoot even after windows blow.
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Offline icrcc

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Re: Ukraine Situation
« Reply #235 on: August 26, 2014, 10:34:14 AM »
I hear on the news today that Ukrainian forces have captured ten Russian soldiers well inside the Ukraine. The Russian story is they took a wrong turn and got lost. Perhaps these guys didn't have GPS and could not read maps. :) Do they really think people would believe such a weak excuse?
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Offline zeker

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NATO to deploy 10,000 troops. canada to help
« Reply #236 on: August 30, 2014, 07:53:37 AM »
NATO planning 'rapid-deployment force' of 10,000 troops to counter Russia                            Published time: August 30, 2014 01:12                                                           
                                Edited time: August 30, 2014                                 
 
German troops who are part of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) (Reuters / Omar Sobhani)
 
NATO is reportedly working towards the creation of an expeditionary force composed of 10,000 troops from seven different member states as a result of escalating tensions with Russia over the conflict in Ukraine.
 

  According to the Financial Times, the force’s creation will be  spearheaded by Britain and involve contributions from Denmark,  Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Norway, and the Netherlands. Canada  is also interested in joining the group, but it’s not known what  its final decision will be.
 

  Although no formal announcement has been made, British Prime  Minister David Cameron is expected to declare its formation at  the upcoming NATO summit in Wales on September 4th.
 

  Many specifics have yet to be worked out or announced, but  planners are reportedly implementing ways to increase the number  of soldiers involved even more if necessary. Air and naval units  will be integrated into the group, as well as ground troops led  by British commanders.

  As noted by the Times, the creation of the force comes as a  response to Russia’s involvement in the ongoing Ukrainian crisis,  with the ultimate goal being to “create a fully functioning,  division-sized force for rapid deployment and regular, frequent  exercises.” NATO has accused Russia of deploying more than  1,000 troops into Ukraine to bolster separatists in the eastern  part of the country.
  Russia, however, insists that it does not have troops operating  inside of Ukraine and has dismissed NATO’s assertions.

  Despite the fact that NATO has opted not to act militarily in  Ukraine – unnamed sources told Foreign Policy on Friday that there are no  plans to confront Russia with anything more than stronger  sanctions – Jonathan Eyal of the London-based Royal United  Services Institute said the group needs to demonstrate that its  eastern European members are just as integral to the alliance as  other states.
“We need to end the idea of different zones of security in  Europe,” he told the Financial Times. “We need to be  talking about prepositioning, regular rotation of troops and  making it very clear that we do not accept that the eastern  Europeans are in some different category of membership of  NATO.”
The revelation also arrives just a few days after NATO’s  Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen expressed interest in forming “a more visible  presence” in Eastern Europe in the form of facilities  capable of rapidly receiving “response forces” needed to  counter Russia.

  For his part, Russia’s envoy to NATO, Aleksandr Grushko, said any attempt to stretch further into the region  would impact Moscow’s own security planning.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2014, 10:51:18 AM by zeker »
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Offline icrcc

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Russia shuts off the gas
« Reply #237 on: January 15, 2015, 11:46:58 AM »
Russia Cuts Off Ukraine Gas Supply To 6 European Countries. Note that they waited until the temperatures dropped. We will have to see where this leads.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-14/russia-cuts-ukraine-gas-supply-6-european-countries
It may never happen. Best to be prepared just in case.

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« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 12:34:40 PM by icrcc »
It may never happen. Best to be prepared just in case.

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Russian Troops enter Ukraine.
« Reply #239 on: January 19, 2015, 09:40:25 AM »
The BBC has just reported that Russian troops have entered Eastern Ukraine.  More details to follow as soon as I get them.
It may never happen. Best to be prepared just in case.

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