Solar Flares and CME's.

[icrcc]

Periodically we get posts about solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CME's) etc. I thought I would post information on solar conditions that might impact Earth and attempt to keep it current.

To appreciate the possible severity of solar flares you must understand the scale by which they are measured. This is a brief description of the scale.
There are five categories of solar flares: A, B, C, M and X. They are measured by their X-ray brightness. Type A and B are negligible and type C have very few effects on the Earth. Type M are medium and can cause brief polar radio blackouts. X-class flares are the big ones and can cause planet wide radio blackouts and long lasting radiation storms.

Each class of flare is subdivided into a nine point scale i.e. M 1 to M9 an X1 to X9. Although some flares have been estimated to have been X45!
The direction of the flare with respect to Earth is very important. If it is pointed our way then we encounter the associated CME which then impacts the Earth as a magnetic storm. A X9 or bigger flare pointed directly at the Earth would probably be good night to the electrical grid system.
 
You can check the Suns current conditions at:
http://www.spaceweather.com/ and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

[WildernessReturn]

Where Have All the People Gone? (1974) Full movie
Published on 28 Jul 2012
ABC Movie of the Week:
A strange series of solar flares proves fatal for inhabitants of the Earth, except for the fortunate few who are somehow immune from the effects. A handful of survivors attempt to rebuild their lives on the de-populated Earth. (IMDB)
My ABC Movie Of the Week channel:
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZzQ8B4__uw

sorry tongue in cheek, but then again this might have some ideas in it, just came across this and have not watched it yet! I do love Apocalyptic movies though.

[icrcc]

This is a good article citing a recent study and the possible devastating effect as severe CME:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10103492/Solar-storm-could-leave-Britain-without-power-for-months.html

It is somewhat specific to the UK but has just the same implications here.

[Ranger2012]

For those that think that the worst is over for CME's, the Science type's think that we will have a double peak season this solar maximum. Sooo, we get to see this again in 2015.

[icrcc]

The maximum of this solar cycle was supposed to be spring 2013. Now, as Ranger says, NASA is predicting that this cycle will (may) peek in in 2015. Although generally it is an 11 year cycle  sometimes it is longer. Cycles within cycles so to speak.  I think in the end all that NASA can do is give their best guestimate.

[icrcc]

A massive sunspot AR1785 is pointing towards the Earth.  Spaceweather.com is reporting  a 55% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares today. This is one of the biggest sunspots of this current cycle.

[icrcc]

As reported by spacewearther.com this solar maximum of cycle 24 is probably going to be the weakest in 50 years. See the graph for the actual vs. predicted number of sunspots.  There is a chance that there could be a double peak with the second peak occurring sometime between now and 2015. A weak solar cycle does not mean that we are out of the woods as they can still produce powerful solar storms.  The Carrington Event took place during a weak solar cycle.

[Ranger2012]

from "SpaceWeather.com"

MAGNETIC FIELD REVERSAL ON THE SUN:  It hasn't happened yet, but it's about to. Data from NASA-supported observatories show that the sun's global magnetic field will flip before the end of 2013. The reversal, which signals the arrival of Solar Maximum, will have ripple effects felt throughout the solar system. Get the full story and a video from Science@NASA. 

[icrcc]

Good update, thanks Ranger. When it happens in three months or so it will mark the midpoint of this solar cycle maximum which will be good to know. This maximum has been much weaker than predicted and as a result it was not clear when or if the maximum had been reached.

[above all, adapt]

Short article about how surge protectors etc can save the laptop you are using now.
http://www.empcover.com/solar-storm-cme-protection.html

[icrcc]

Short article about how surge protectors etc can save the laptop you are using now.
http://www.empcover.com/solar-storm-cme-protection.html

Well a good article for general advice. However a surge protector WILL NOT protect you from an EMP. Even top of the line UPS’s will NOT protect you from and EMP. They will protect you from day to day surges and the better ones will do that very well. EMP’s however are another story. Without getting too technical EMP’s can spike the voltage to the magnitude of 106 V/m in less than 10-9 Sec (1/1,000,000,000 s). That is a very high voltage in a very, very short time and way outside the operating parameters of consumer surge protectors and UPS’s.

Also keep in mind that even if you equipment is not plugged into the household AC electrical system it will still get fried by the EMP’s intense electrical field that will induce a current in the device itself.

[above all, adapt]

With EMPs and CMEs, there is just sooo much info out there that contradicts itself.

If one wants to prep for these possibilities, I figure one should take all precautions that are recommended, "just in case" and do what makes sense for yourself when it comes to contradictions.

what you're saying icrcc makes total sense. 

[NObshere]

All you have to remember about prepping is that if you're prepped for the zombie apocalypse you're ready for anything.

Cheers out

BTW AAA good answer

[above all, adapt]

Zombies coming out of the cities is indeed ...well... 

After giving it some thought, I think that just getting a laptop from a garage sale is 1. cheaper, and 2.  a more reliable way of protecting it as one could just throw it in one's faraday...put movies for relaxation and practical info on it so that if there is no internet, one can still use it for sumthin! 

[icrcc]

The Sun has been uncannily quite for about a week.  At the moment there is only one sun spot and it poses no threat of a large flare. This is very unusual as we are in a solar maximum. With the Sun’s magnetic field about to flip we will have to wait and see if activity increases afterwards and if we are in a trough between the peaks of a double maximum.

[above all, adapt]

This is a email alert I received today.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 867
Issue Time: 2013 Sep 19 2049 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Sep 19 1947 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 797 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Not entirely sure what the scientific mumbo jumbo means...but it is an alert so I thought I would pass it on...anyone with more knowledge chime in 

you can sign up for email alerts @
https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/LoginWebForm.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fproductsubscriptionservice%2f
I would suggest just signing up for the alerts, not the other emails, otherwise you get a lot of emails!

[above all, adapt]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2088
Issue Time: 2013 Sep 21 1044 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2087
Begin Time: 2013 Sep 20 1220 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2939 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

[icrcc]

There is 10% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 23rd when a minor CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field and it is nothing to worry about.  Also a stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole is also heading for Earth and due to arrive on Sept. 23-24 and this could add to the impact of the minor CME mentioned above that is expected to reach Earth at about the same time. We may get a show of Northern Lights.

[above all, adapt]

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 136
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 02 0126 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 02 0150 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 02 0250 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 02 0120 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

[above all, adapt]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 232
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 02 0359 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 02 0400 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 02 1300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


This is not something to be worried about, at least according to my research. Here it explains it better:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#G2

See y'all in the morning