Author Topic: Econo watchers 10 year bonds  (Read 2195 times)

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Offline kelee877

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Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« on: August 19, 2013, 04:40:43 AM »
I know I am the early bird that catches the weirdest news...


10 year bond is going up today..means someone is losing faith in the American dollar and this ponzi scheme they set in motion in 2008...we made be watching the slow collapse of the American dollar..which in most cases when USA sneezes, Canada catches the cold...

should we see it hit the next barrier of 2.9 to 3.0 then we could see the slippery slope and slid of the worlds economies...

I will watch today and post any news that breaks today

I am sort of a back watcher of the economy, my specialty is pandemics and contagious diseases...
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Offline kelee877

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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2013, 04:42:38 AM »
here is a live link to the 10 year bonds

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield

2.856 at 4;45 this morning
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Offline thecrownsown

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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2013, 07:46:00 AM »
I'm not following your logic.

Your saying your predicting the US demise over a spike in this rate?  Can you explain a bit further your hypothesis.
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Offline kelee877

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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2013, 07:57:23 AM »
10 Year Bond Shakedown Continues: Rate Hits 2.873%

It's all about rates this largely newsless morning, which have continued their march wider all night, and moments ago rose to 2.873% - a fresh 2 year wide and meaning that neither Gross, nor the bond market, is nowhere near tweeted out. As DB confirms, US treasuries are front and center of mind at the moment.... the 10yr UST yield is up another 4bp at a fresh two year high of 2.87% in Tokyo trading, adding to last week’s 20bp selloff. As it currently stands, 10yr yields are up by more than 120bp from the YTD lows in early May and more than 80bp higher since Bernanke’s now infamous JEC testimony. We should also note that the recent US rates selloff has been accompanied by a rapid steepening in the rate curve. Indeed, the 2s/10s curve is at a 2 year high of 250bp and the 2s/30s and 2s/5s are also at close to their highest level in two years.

more at link

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-19/10-year-bond-shakedown-continues-rate-hits-2873
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Offline kelee877

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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2013, 07:59:24 AM »
Bond exodus accelerates as yields creep near 3%

Outflows from U.S. bond mutual funds and exchange traded funds has accelerated in August, according to a new report by TrimTabs, as fears grow of the threat that rising yields pose for the U.S. economy.

"We are concerned that the Fed is starting to lose control of the bond market, which is not good news for the stock market or the highly leveraged U.S. economy," TrimTabs said in the report.

So far this month, U.S. bond mutual funds and ETFs have seen outflows of $19.7 billion, more than the $14.8 billion of outflows in July. August's outflow is already the fourth-highest on record, TrimTabs said, adding that since the start of June bond funds have lost $103.5 billion or 2.7 percent of total assets.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-exodus-accelerates-yields-creep-063342647.html
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Offline kelee877

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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2013, 08:05:27 AM »
No link this one came through my email





The Most Important Number to Watch This Week
By Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning

The esoteric – yet highly accurate – Hindenburg Omen we looked at Friday may suggest the probability of a market crash. But the number I'm watching this week could cause one.

As a standalone figure, of course, the yield on 10-year Treasuries is small. But the amount of money it impacts worldwide is flat-out staggering.

Out of the estimated $1.5 quadrillion dollars' worth of derivatives on the planet right now, roughly $500 trillion is specifically related to interest rates.

So you can see why the 10-year gets so much attention. But right now, I'm watching it even more carefully… for one important reason.

When the Hindenburg was sounding the alarm last week, 10-year Treasury yields spiked at the same time, up to 2.8210% before relaxing a bit in early trading last Friday as of press time. That suggests to me the Fed is losing control over interest rates.

No doubt this is a frightening scenario, which is why it's important to remember...
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Offline icrcc

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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2013, 10:28:07 AM »
I was following that too. everyone can read more of the logic involved at:
http://www.moneynews.com/investinganalysis/william-hindenburg-cashin-s-p-500/2013/08/16/id/520812
Thanks for the background Kelee877. One thing is for sure the markets, precious metal prices and money markets are being manipulated and we are in brand new territory. One miscalculation and it can all come down like a house of cards.
It may never happen. Best to be prepared just in case.

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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2013, 12:08:16 PM »
The FED talks and all markets react. Tapering of easy money is driving bonds and assets. Their is a massive amount of money sitting on the banks balance sheets that is not making it into the economy. If it did then inflation would spike. Technically the US cant default like a city can since it creates money. The claim is if interest rates spike then the US defaults. This simply is not true since the FED can continue buying bonds FOREVER! If China sells 3T worth of paper then the FED simply creates 3T. If the FED were to do this then the spiral down starts since it would be the same as me buying something for nothing and then faith is lost. The US trade deficits are horrifying and I often wondered how a country can survive when it is based on nothing. The velocity of money in the US is down as well. ETF's are something that is worrying some as well due to the leverage used. China and Russia collecting gold like a fat kid collects candy is something that should send a red flag to the world that we may hit a gold standard when they deem necessary. I guess we will find out how much gold is really in the US vaults.

Tanking the US economy for 3t worth of paper is much easier than starting a conflict that involves a physical war. The Chinese are also selling paper and buying up land in North America. If China were to dump USA paper in one fell swoop you can bet your sweet ass their will be false flags waving everywhere. War would be at hand and I for one would not believe our governments lies.

Here are some interesting numbers...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_account_balance

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/32242       

Click- Velocity of M2 Money Stock

Offline kelee877

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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2013, 12:34:51 PM »
What Is Going To Happen If Interest Rates Continue To Rise Rapidly?

If you want to track how close we are to the next financial collapse, there is one number that you need to be watching above all others.  The number that I am talking about is the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries, because it affects thousands of other interest rates in our financial system.  When the yield on 10 year U.S
.
Treasuries goes up, that is bad for the U.S. economy because it pushes long-term interest rates up.  When interest rates rise, it constricts the flow of credit, and a healthy flow of credit is absolutely essential to the debt-based system that we live in.  Just imagine someone squeezing a tube that has water flowing through it.  The higher interest rates go, the more economic activity will be squeezed.  If interest rates continue to rise rapidly, it will be more expensive for the U.S.

government to borrow money, it will be more expensive for state and local governments to borrow money, the housing market may crash again, consumer debt will become more expensive, junk bond investors will be in for a world of hurt, the stock market will experience a tremendous amount of pain and there is a good chance that we could see the 441 trillion dollar interest rate derivatives bubble implode.  And that is just for starters.

more at link

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/what-is-going-to-happen-if-interest-rates-continue-to-rise-rapidly
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Offline kelee877

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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2013, 01:01:33 PM »
10 year bonds hit 2.9 and climbing... :o
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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2013, 02:21:57 AM »
Bonds will stay under 3.5% or perhaps 4% but not over. The FED is in the same boat now that Japan has been for the last 15 years. Could spike but bonds have been in a bubble forever and a burst scares many. Fear keeps the bubble inflated so the FED will keep rates low (money pump). Banks change rates more than the FED does (usually higher for more profit). They do not go in tandem. Bank rates matter in lending. I would love a 3% rate on credit.

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Re: Econo watchers 10 year bonds
« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2013, 05:03:14 PM »
2.7 yield on 10 year US bonds today.