CanAmPreppers

SHTF Threats & Thoughts => Astronomical => Topic started by: icrcc on March 19, 2013, 04:53:09 PM

Title: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on March 19, 2013, 04:53:09 PM
Periodically we get posts about solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CME's) etc. I thought I would post information on solar conditions that might impact Earth and attempt to keep it current.

To appreciate the possible severity of solar flares you must understand the scale by which they are measured. This is a brief description of the scale.
There are five categories of solar flares: A, B, C, M and X. They are measured by their X-ray brightness. Type A and B are negligible and type C have very few effects on the Earth. Type M are medium and can cause brief polar radio blackouts. X-class flares are the big ones and can cause planet wide radio blackouts and long lasting radiation storms.

Each class of flare is subdivided into a nine point scale i.e. M 1 to M9 an X1 to X9. Although some flares have been estimated to have been X45!
The direction of the flare with respect to Earth is very important. If it is pointed our way then we encounter the associated CME which then impacts the Earth as a magnetic storm. A X9 or bigger flare pointed directly at the Earth would probably be good night to the electrical grid system.
 
You can check the Suns current conditions at:
http://www.spaceweather.com/ and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: WildernessReturn on March 19, 2013, 06:10:12 PM

Where Have All the People Gone? (1974) Full movie
Published on 28 Jul 2012
ABC Movie of the Week:
A strange series of solar flares proves fatal for inhabitants of the Earth, except for the fortunate few who are somehow immune from the effects. A handful of survivors attempt to rebuild their lives on the de-populated Earth. (IMDB)
My ABC Movie Of the Week channel:
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZzQ8B4__uw

sorry tongue in cheek, but then again this might have some ideas in it, just came across this and have not watched it yet! I do love Apocalyptic movies though.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on June 08, 2013, 03:13:50 PM
This is a good article citing a recent study and the possible devastating effect as severe CME:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10103492/Solar-storm-could-leave-Britain-without-power-for-months.html

It is somewhat specific to the UK but has just the same implications here.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on July 04, 2013, 12:41:25 PM
For those that think that the worst is over for CME's, the Science type's think that we will have a double peak season this solar maximum. Sooo, we get to see this again in 2015. 8)
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on July 05, 2013, 09:33:47 AM
The maximum of this solar cycle was supposed to be spring 2013. Now, as Ranger says, NASA is predicting that this cycle will (may) peek in in 2015. Although generally it is an 11 year cycle  sometimes it is longer. Cycles within cycles so to speak.  I think in the end all that NASA can do is give their best guestimate.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on July 08, 2013, 07:00:49 PM
A massive sunspot AR1785 is pointing towards the Earth.  Spaceweather.com is reporting  a 55% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares today. This is one of the biggest sunspots of this current cycle.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on July 25, 2013, 11:39:52 AM
As reported by spacewearther.com this solar maximum of cycle 24 is probably going to be the weakest in 50 years. See the graph for the actual vs. predicted number of sunspots.  There is a chance that there could be a double peak with the second peak occurring sometime between now and 2015. A weak solar cycle does not mean that we are out of the woods as they can still produce powerful solar storms.  The Carrington Event took place during a weak solar cycle.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on August 06, 2013, 11:39:45 AM
from "SpaceWeather.com"

MAGNETIC FIELD REVERSAL ON THE SUN:  It hasn't happened yet, but it's about to. Data from NASA-supported observatories show that the sun's global magnetic field will flip before the end of 2013. The reversal, which signals the arrival of Solar Maximum, will have ripple effects felt throughout the solar system. Get the full story and a video from Science@NASA. 
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on August 07, 2013, 11:26:11 AM
Good update, thanks Ranger. When it happens in three months or so it will mark the midpoint of this solar cycle maximum which will be good to know. This maximum has been much weaker than predicted and as a result it was not clear when or if the maximum had been reached.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on September 05, 2013, 02:17:01 PM
Short article about how surge protectors etc can save the laptop you are using now.
http://www.empcover.com/solar-storm-cme-protection.html
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on September 05, 2013, 02:42:14 PM
Short article about how surge protectors etc can save the laptop you are using now.
http://www.empcover.com/solar-storm-cme-protection.html



Well a good article for general advice. However a surge protector WILL NOT  protect you from an EMP. Even top of the line UPS’s will NOT  protect you from and EMP. They will protect you from day to day surges and the better ones will do that very well. EMP’s however are another story. Without getting too technical EMP’s can spike the voltage to the magnitude of 106 V/m in less than 10-9 Sec (1/1,000,000,000 s). That is a very high voltage in a very, very short time and way outside the operating parameters of consumer surge protectors and UPS’s.

Also keep in mind that even if you equipment is not plugged into the household AC electrical system it will still get fried by the EMP’s intense electrical field that will induce a current in the device itself.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on September 05, 2013, 02:58:56 PM
With EMPs and CMEs, there is just sooo much info out there that contradicts itself.

If one wants to prep for these possibilities, I figure one should take all precautions that are recommended, "just in case" and do what makes sense for yourself when it comes to contradictions.

what you're saying icrcc makes total sense.  :)
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: NObshere on September 05, 2013, 06:03:10 PM
All you have to remember about prepping is that if you're prepped for the zombie apocalypse you're ready for anything.

Cheers out

BTW AAA good answer
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on September 05, 2013, 06:43:19 PM
Zombies coming out of the cities is indeed ...well...  :-X

After giving it some thought, I think that just getting a laptop from a garage sale is 1. cheaper, and 2.  a more reliable way of protecting it as one could just throw it in one's faraday...put movies for relaxation and practical info on it so that if there is no internet, one can still use it for sumthin!  :)  
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on September 17, 2013, 02:56:23 PM
The Sun has been uncannily quite for about a week.  At the moment there is only one sun spot and it poses no threat of a large flare. This is very unusual as we are in a solar maximum. With the Sun’s magnetic field about to flip we will have to wait and see if activity increases afterwards and if we are in a trough between the peaks of a double maximum.
Title: ALERT: Type II Radio Emission‏
Post by: above all, adapt on September 19, 2013, 06:47:42 PM
This is a email alert I received today.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 867
Issue Time: 2013 Sep 19 2049 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Sep 19 1947 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 797 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Not entirely sure what the scientific mumbo jumbo means...but it is an alert so I thought I would pass it on...anyone with more knowledge chime in  :)

you can sign up for email alerts @
https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/LoginWebForm.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fproductsubscriptionservice%2f
I would suggest just signing up for the alerts, not the other emails, otherwise you get a lot of emails!
Title: ALERT: Electron 2 MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1,000 pfu‏
Post by: above all, adapt on September 21, 2013, 11:03:00 PM
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2088
Issue Time: 2013 Sep 21 1044 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2087
Begin Time: 2013 Sep 20 1220 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2939 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on September 22, 2013, 12:37:33 AM
There is 10% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 23rd when a minor CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field and it is nothing to worry about.  Also a stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole is also heading for Earth and due to arrive on Sept. 23-24 and this could add to the impact of the minor CME mentioned above that is expected to reach Earth at about the same time. We may get a show of Northern Lights.
Title: WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Post by: above all, adapt on October 01, 2013, 09:42:00 PM
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 136
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 02 0126 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 02 0150 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 02 0250 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 02 0120 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 02, 2013, 12:20:10 AM
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 232
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 02 0359 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 02 0400 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 02 1300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


This is not something to be worried about, at least according to my research. Here it explains it better:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#G2

See y'all in the morning  :)
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on October 05, 2013, 04:51:11 PM
Well now. September is gone and no KILL SHOT from the Sun, well so much for the forward viewing of the CIA. So the TEOTWAWKI, is on stand-by again, not that I really want to see it, or maybe I do. Well like they say, "Patients is a virtue not a commodity". Until then, We prepare for the Worst and hope for the Best, or at least most of us do.  ;D
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 07, 2013, 11:54:41 AM
ya, interesting....
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 08, 2013, 08:01:10 PM
Another email...just posting this for others' interest, a G2 is moderate, so no catastrophic harm should happen to us here on earth  :)

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 233
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 08 2258 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2257 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 09 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 08, 2013, 10:52:31 PM
And yet others..

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 426
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 09 0216 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 09 0155 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 869
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 09 0239 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 09 0145 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 791 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: wild_E on October 09, 2013, 11:22:52 AM
soo.... did this happen, did it not hit earth yet, or was it a near miss?
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 09, 2013, 12:02:13 PM
From reading the NOAA scales and classifications on google, they are not strong enough to damage the grid on earth, though they do affect satellites etc. Yes they all occurred and we experienced the affects @ 0155, 0145, and 0300 UTC today, respectively. So it was until 0755, 0845, and 0900 our time (alberta) 
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 13, 2013, 12:57:08 PM
2 more small CMEs

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 872
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 13 0804 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 13 0711 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 688 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 871
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 13 0151 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 13 0035 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 798 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on October 13, 2013, 02:18:19 PM
There are a couple of sunspots, AR1861 and AR1865 that are facing Earth at the moment that have a good chance of erupting with M class flares. SpaceWeather.com is reporting a 40% chance of M class flares and a 15% chance of X class flares.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 13, 2013, 05:00:38 PM
There are a couple of sunspots, AR1861 and AR1865 that are facing Earth at the moment that have a good chance of erupting with M class flares. SpaceWeather.com is reporting a 40% chance of M class flares and a 15% chance of X class flares.

Thank you for sharing that info on this threat.  
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 16, 2013, 01:33:46 PM
another email.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission‏

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 428
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 16 0953 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 16 0930 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms


Type IV is Severe  (it ranges from Type I-V)
 
HF Radio: : HF radio communication blackout on most of the sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours. HF radio contact lost during this time.

Navigation: Outages of low-frequency navigation signals cause increased error in positioning for one to two hours. Minor disruptions of satellite navigation possible on the sunlit side of Earth.
 
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: wild_E on October 16, 2013, 01:36:29 PM
Could the two airplane crashes in the last two days be caused directly or indirectly on these flares?
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 16, 2013, 01:37:31 PM
Could the two airplane crashes in the last two days be caused directly or indirectly on these flares?

That would be terrible!
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on October 17, 2013, 11:33:23 AM
Courtesy of Spaceweather.com and photographer David Mayhew.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: wild_E on October 17, 2013, 12:23:21 PM
wow. the wing tip looks like a dragons head breathing green fire, sweet!
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 23, 2013, 07:21:56 PM
There were 4 small CMEs yesterday. Here is the latest  

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 877
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 23 0145 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 22 2129 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 752 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on October 23, 2013, 11:39:48 PM
from Spaceweather.com "Earth-facing sunspot AR1877 erupted on Oct. 24th at 00:30 UT (Oct. 23rd at 5:30 pm PDT), producing an M9-class solar flare. A flash of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's upper atmosphere and created a brief HF radio blackout on the sunlit side of the planet"

There is a 40% chance of severe geomagnetic storms at high latitudes and a 40% chance of active geomagnetic storms at mid-latitudes. One of these days in the future we may well get an unwelcome surprise.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on October 25, 2013, 06:37:13 AM
SOLAR FLARE! Solar activity is high. On October 24th at 00:30 UT, Earth-facing sunspot AR1877 erupted, producing a powerful M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast:
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: M590a1 on October 25, 2013, 10:52:59 AM
Thanks for the updates!
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on October 26, 2013, 03:37:25 AM
X-FLARE UPDATE:  New sunspot AR1882 isn't very big, but it is potent. The active region has already unleashed two strong solar flares today: An X1 at 08:01 UT followed by an X2 at 15:07 UT. There is no reason to think this fusillade will end soon, so stay tuned for more flares.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on October 28, 2013, 04:00:38 AM
ANOTHER X-FLARE:  Earth-orbiting satellites detected an X1-class solar flare from sunspot AR1875 on Oct. 28th at 0203 UT. This is the 3rd X-flare since Oct. 25th, which means solar activity is still high. Stay tuned for more information about the latest eruption.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 28, 2013, 06:03:57 PM
8 CME's since about 8pm last night. like Ranger posted, 1 big X flare, 2 M (medium) flares, and the rest small ones.

The reason I keep myself updated on CMEs and post about them is so that we can PREPARE, meaning building a faraday cage if you don't already have one, or if you do, placing items inside it that may not be there ...things one uses on a regular basis. I threw my big maglight flashlight, kindle, any scopes that use batteries, little solar charger for the kindle.... in the cage they go...

cuz that's what preppers do.... :)
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on October 29, 2013, 09:53:27 AM
NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class flares and a 35% chance of X-flares today,Oct. 29th. Currently there are three sunspots that could erupt with X-class solar flares. One of these  AR1882, is pointed towards Earth which means any resulting CME would as Spaceweather.com puts it be "geoeffective".
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Greenguy on October 29, 2013, 01:24:08 PM
Is there a way to put a bar graph or something on the main page with an alert color or number?
It would be nice to have a quick notice of a big one.  I look at this topic but I don't understand a lot of the terms.
Something that alerts everyone to the current threat level would be cool!
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: NObshere on October 29, 2013, 01:51:24 PM
Good idea GG, we could do the same with pandemic alerts
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on October 29, 2013, 02:02:55 PM
Is there a way to put a bar graph or something on the main page with an alert color or number?
It would be nice to have a quick notice of a big one.  I look at this topic but I don't understand a lot of the terms.
Something that alerts everyone to the current threat level would be cool!

Great idea, can this be done?
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: wild_E on October 29, 2013, 05:39:15 PM
Is there a way to put a bar graph or something on the main page with an alert color or number?
It would be nice to have a quick notice of a big one.  I look at this topic but I don't understand a lot of the terms.
Something that alerts everyone to the current threat level would be cool!

Great idea, can this be done?
Ummmm mmmmmayybeeee
maybe..
might be able to do it on the Landing page the Forum hosting site page, found here (http://canampreppers.net/)


Can you folks find ... links to active sites and charts already?
If not, there is another way to do it, though it would involve the use of Pics that we create and then the mods going in daily to change the pics...???
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on October 30, 2013, 06:48:54 AM
Unless there is an X-class of at least 5 and directed at us, then I'm not all that worried about CME. M-class is good for a light show but that is about all. When I see a red sky at night, then I will start changing my shorts, until then, enjoy the light show. O0
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: NObshere on October 30, 2013, 06:53:53 AM
Unless there is an X-class of at least 5 and directed at us, then I'm not all that worried about CME. M-class is good for a light show but that is about all. When I see a red sky at night, then I will start changing my shorts, until then, enjoy the light show. O0

Are you sure that you want to wait that long before you change your shorts?...LMAO (Why don't I have any friends....?)
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Greenguy on October 30, 2013, 09:04:30 AM
Is there a way to put a bar graph or something on the main page with an alert color or number?
It would be nice to have a quick notice of a big one.  I look at this topic but I don't understand a lot of the terms.
Something that alerts everyone to the current threat level would be cool!

Great idea, can this be done?
Ummmm mmmmmayybeeee
maybe..
might be able to do it on the Landing page the Forum hosting site page, found here (http://canampreppers.net/)


Can you folks find ... links to active sites and charts already?
If not, there is another way to do it, though it would involve the use of Pics that we create and then the mods going in daily to change the pics...???

It would be tedious for the moderators to have to daily manage a series of alert images.  I'm searching for something like an RSS feed that can be installed somewhere on the site.   The closest thing I can find right now is here:
http://solarflares.einnews.com/all_rss (http://solarflares.einnews.com/all_rss)

What do you think?
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: NObshere on October 30, 2013, 11:03:32 AM
Give it atry
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on November 05, 2013, 06:28:51 AM
INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR1890 has an increasingly unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. So far the sunspot is quiet, but this could be the calm before the storm. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of M-class solar flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Nov. 5th
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on November 05, 2013, 09:56:27 AM
AR1890 is one of the largest  sunspots of the current solar cycle. Although it only emerged over the sun's eastern limb three days ago it was clearly visible in some of the shots of the solar eclipse on Sunday, November 3rd.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on November 05, 2013, 10:11:04 PM
There was an X3-class solar flare just detected from the big sunspot AR1890. It was strong but brief and it was not directly pointed at Earth. We will however likely feel some effects.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on November 08, 2013, 06:41:58 AM
More eruptions are in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class solar flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on Nov. 8th.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on November 10, 2013, 05:09:30 AM
This is the third X-flare from AR1890 since Nov. 5th, and all three have something in common: brevity. AR1890 tends to produce impulsive flares, peaking sharply in a matter of minutes or less. Often, brief flares do not produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but this one could be an exception. A movie of the flare shows a plume of material lifting off the sun shortly after the UV flash. That could be the beginnings of an Earth-directed CME.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on November 10, 2013, 12:04:30 PM
They said there was a 20% chance of a X class flare and they were 100% correct. I find it strange that this time spaceweahter.com states "That could be the beginnings of an Earth-directed CME." when they usually give the number of days to when the CME will impact the Earth even if it is just a glancing blow. this one, AR1890, was pointed just about at us.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: wild_E on November 10, 2013, 12:37:56 PM
Husky Dog person,,,,


maybe it is a conspiracy?????  ;)
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on November 10, 2013, 01:15:07 PM
Husky Dog person,,,,


maybe it is a conspiracy?????  ;)

And just in time for Gridex II.  >:D :'(
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on November 12, 2013, 05:04:35 PM
Just returning from a transit of the sun's farside, old sunspot AR1875 is back on the Earthside where it unleashed several strong flares in October. A second round of eruptions from this active region could be in the offing. Complex sunspots AR1890 and AR1897 also pose a threat for flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of M-class flares and a 35% chance of X-flares  during the next 24 hours.

A Winter storm, An  X-Class CME, Hey what else could you want. Oh Yeah may-be a Zombie apocalypse would be nice. Ride Horsemen Ride. >:D
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: NObshere on November 14, 2013, 09:11:09 AM
I've got a grey horse...
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on December 30, 2013, 06:59:46 AM
Sunspot AR1934 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class  solar flares. Sunspot AR1936 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for lesser M-class flares. Nevertheless, AR1936 poses the greater threat to Earth because it is directly facing our planet. Indeed, an M3-class flare from this sunspot on Dec. 29th created a wave of ionization in the upper atmosphere over Asia, the Middle East and eastern Europe. More flares are in the offing, so stay tuned.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on December 30, 2013, 01:36:17 PM
Thank you
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on January 02, 2014, 04:50:35 AM
Because of foreshortening near the sun's limb, the complexity of AR1944's magnetic field is still unknown. The sheer size of the sunspot, however, suggests it is capable of strong flares. The emergence of AR1944 combined with the ongoing activity from AR1936 has prompted NOAA forecasters to raise the odds of eruptions on Jan. 2nd to 70% for M-flares  and 30% for X-flares just in time for a good snow storm, eh! >:D
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on January 02, 2014, 11:38:32 AM
Thanks for the heads up Ranger. AR1944 it turning towards us and it is huge so we will have to keep an eye on that one.  Also there is a very good chance of a nice aurora display tonight and tomorrow due to an increased solar wind from a coronal hole that is pointing towards us. 
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Edible Wild Food on January 03, 2014, 10:28:56 PM
Good information here. There are other solar factors that affects what's happening here on our planet. From what I have read there are many changes happening in our solar system so we are in for a sun ride over the next few years!
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: grizly1 on January 07, 2014, 09:01:23 PM
Ok I got a warning today
From a friend on the rubycon
I guess there's a solar flSh happening write now
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on January 07, 2014, 11:58:42 PM
Thanks Grizly1, a huge sunspot AR1944 which is big enough to be seen by the naked eye (with the necessary precautions) emitted an X1 class solar fare this afternoon. It is pointing towards the Earth so any CME is undoubtedly coming our way. We will have an update tomorrow.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: tazweiss on January 08, 2014, 01:43:40 AM
Wouldn't you know it.  It's cloudy out, so no northern lights for me tonight.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: kelee877 on January 08, 2014, 05:53:32 AM
Wouldn't you know it..I sleep through all the good stuff

Thanks griz for the heads up email

While I am doing my hunt and search for pandemic info I will check out whats up about the solar flare and how it may efect us..

all we need now is the economy to start taking a dive and we know we are in the doom slot...
-     - - -----------------------------------------------------------------------               

Snowden Revelation of "Solar Virus Armageddon" Shocks World

Is a solar virus coming to plunge the world into chaos?

MONDAY, AUGUST 19, 2013

The MOH report said that this coming fall or winter, a massive reversal of the sun's magnetic field would not only severely effect our weather and radio transmissions, but would also genetically create mutant deadly viruses. This coming "solar flip" will kill millions in an apocalyptic-type catastrophe.

A report released in 1990 by two British scientists, said that solar activity (sunspots) were related to every incident of viral influenza epidemics and pandemics in human history. Snowden released documents that reveal dangerous type viruses like Influenza A H7N9 and Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PED). These have killed millions of pigs in the US this year and show no sign of stopping.

The Snowden leak also revealed that the US government purchased 1.5 billion rounds of ammo in 2012 and will purchase another 1.6 billion rounds in the next four to five years. The Obama Administration fears "social anarchy" will develop as tens of millions of Americans die and the economy collapses due to what the MOH says will be, "the worst pandemic disaster in human history."

Folks, this story is not from some Christian fiction or some sensational prophecy website, but from the Ministry of Health themselves, and what they are saying is a page right out of Bible prophecy.

http://www.lamblion.us/2013/08/snowden-revelation-of-solar-virus.html
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on January 08, 2014, 09:48:09 AM
NO need to panic about the Sun’s magnetic field reversal, in fact no need to worry at all. The Sun’s magnetic field reverses with EVERY solar cycle which is every 11 years. It is an event that has little or no effect on the Earth.

Good article at:  http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/the-suns-magnetic-field-is-about-to-flip/


BUT WAIT! It has already happened In the last couple of weeks the flip has occurred. Most of us were totally unaware that this 11year cyclic event even occurred and yes we are still here.  :)

Good article here: http://www.earthweek.com/2014/ew140103/ew140103b.html

In contrast the last magnetic reversal of Earth’s magnetic poles took place 780 000 years ago and we are overdue for another one. The reversal of Earth’s magnetic field however would be a matter of concern to us.  :(
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: kelee877 on January 08, 2014, 10:12:55 AM
NO need to panic about the Sun’s magnetic field reversal, in fact no need to worry at all. The Sun’s magnetic field reverses with EVERY solar cycle which is every 11 years. It is an event that has little or no effect on the Earth.

Good article at:  http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/the-suns-magnetic-field-is-about-to-flip/


BUT WAIT! It has already happened In the last couple of weeks the flip has occurred. Most of us were totally unaware that this 11year cyclic event even occurred and yes we are still here.  :)

Good article here: http://www.earthweek.com/2014/ew140103/ew140103b.html

In contrast the last magnetic reversal of Earth’s magnetic poles took place 780 000 years ago and we are overdue for another one. The reversal of Earth’s magnetic field however would be a matter of concern to us.  :(

but I want to panic..your a party pooper..I live off of panic..I clean my house when I am in panic mode

(http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e114/muskrat43/thsoapbox.gif) (http://s38.photobucket.com/user/muskrat43/media/thsoapbox.gif.html)
(http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e114/muskrat43/thsoapbox.gif) (http://s38.photobucket.com/user/muskrat43/media/thsoapbox.gif.html)


(http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e114/muskrat43/Panic_.gif) (http://s38.photobucket.com/user/muskrat43/media/Panic_.gif.html)
(http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e114/muskrat43/Panic_.gif) (http://s38.photobucket.com/user/muskrat43/media/Panic_.gif.html)


Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on January 08, 2014, 10:28:56 AM
 :)
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: kelee877 on January 08, 2014, 10:36:42 AM
:)

here darlin a video just for you

this should put your panic level up a bit

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p3nFdP0C4s
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on January 08, 2014, 11:06:18 AM
Ok you got me! There is 8 minutes and 31 seconds of my life that I cannot get back, Arrrrrrr!

Take a few facts, twist them around, add in a liberal amount of total untruths, a pinch of blatant lies, mix it up some more and try to spin it into an unbelievable pseudo-science.  He is looking for patterns where there are none and trying to create them where they do not exist.  According to his theory (probably should not dignify it with that word), if it was correct, there would be endemic cancers in people who live in the equatorial regions of Earth and the rate would drop off as you move towards the poles where there would be no cancers at all. Clearly this is not the case. 

Sometimes YouTube channels can be useful, informative and educational  like this one: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5j4M5deU5cC-xt_HYiZgSA/videos which is in sharp contrast to the twaddle spewed by Ralph Zuranski in his minutes and 31 seconds waste of hard drive space.  :P
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on January 08, 2014, 11:17:54 AM
Update on the X 1.2 flare on Jan 7th. People that live in high latitudes should expect auroras on Jan. 9th when the cloud is expected to arrive. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms. This sunspot, AR1944, is still  very active and there is a 50% chance of another X class flare a and an 80% chance of an M class flare within the next 48 hours.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: kelee877 on January 08, 2014, 11:46:51 AM
Ok you got me! There is 8 minutes and 31 seconds of my life that I cannot get back, Arrrrrrr!

Take a few facts, twist them around, add in a liberal amount of total untruths, a pinch of blatant lies, mix it up some more and try to spin it into an unbelievable pseudo-science.  He is looking for patterns where there are none and trying to create them where they do not exist.  According to his theory (probably should not dignify it with that word), if it was correct, there would be endemic cancers in people who live in the equatorial regions of Earth and the rate would drop off as you move towards the poles where there would be no cancers at all. Clearly this is not the case. 

Sometimes YouTube channels can be useful, informative and educational  like this one: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5j4M5deU5cC-xt_HYiZgSA/videos which is in sharp contrast to the twaddle spewed by Ralph Zuranski in his minutes and 31 seconds waste of hard drive space.  :P

P.S he is not the only one in the scientific community to say that when CME occur we get pandemics..and I used his thought as an example..we are in throws of an epidemic right now,should the virus be at a stage where the change from the solar make it more lethal..then well don't say I did not warn you...and besides if I am wrong who does not love a good conspiercy theory or duck and cover ..blood all over the streets talk...now I need to go find a raspberry smilie
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on January 08, 2014, 12:02:35 PM
Ralph Zuranski is many things but he cannot accurately be described as a member of " scientific community". ;)
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: kelee877 on January 08, 2014, 12:14:57 PM
Ralph Zuranski is many things but he cannot accurately be described as a member of " scientific community". ;)

aww come on..I,m still looking for my raspberry smilie

and here i can waste another 12 minutes of your time today

A role for solar activity in the development of epidemics was explored by Kádár et al.
(1981), although the results were inconclusive. These researchers concentrated on
climatic factors and their possible relationship with solar activity, and applied them to the
propagation of the epidemic. Unfortunately, the complex mix of factors that affect the
propagation of the virus makes a solar connection with propagation difficult to identify.
A solar connection with pandemics may seem implausible at first sight however solar
modulation of many environmental parameters is now well established, and it is timely to
revisit the issue of the connection between the occurrence of pandemics and the rhythm
of solar activity.


http://www.billhowell.ca/Pandemics,%20health,%20and%20the%20Sun/Tapping,%20Mathias,%20Surkan%20-%20Pandemics%20&%20solar%20activity.pdf
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on January 08, 2014, 01:24:14 PM
The major concern of the solar cycles is the flare activity at solar maximum and the impact of ensuing CME's on Earth. Particularly the chance of recurring EMP's on the electrical infrastructure. I think this  tread was getting a little off track.


Just to reiterate :


Update on the X 1.2 flare on Jan 7th. People that live in high latitudes should expect auroras on Jan. 9th when the cloud is expected to arrive. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms. This sunspot, AR1944, is still  very active and there is a 50% chance of another X class flare a and an 80% chance of an M class flare within the next 48 hours.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on January 09, 2014, 06:38:49 AM
NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 50% chance of X-flares on Jan. 9th.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: tazweiss on January 09, 2014, 10:40:23 AM
So, before I go out to watch the northern lights tonight, should I put on my bio-hazard suit or just wear my mask? :)
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: wild_E on January 09, 2014, 10:52:08 AM
So, before I go out to watch the northern lights tonight, should I put on my bio-hazard suit or just wear my mask? :)
>:D


if you have your old NBCW suit and full setup, you can do both and be fairly comfortable and safe as well out there in the flat lands, even in the wind.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on January 30, 2014, 11:06:43 AM
A little more activity is forecast for today Jan. 30th.  Spaceweather.com reports that sunspot AR1967 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Jan. 30th.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on January 30, 2014, 01:28:20 PM
Thanks for the update you!
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on February 03, 2014, 11:35:32 PM
 February 4th could see an X-class flare directed towards Earth. Spaceweather.com reports that the large sunspot AR1967 has a 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. The growing complexity of the region has prompted NOAA forecasters to boost the odds of X-flares to 50% during the next 24 hours. Because AR1967 is near the center of the solar disk, any eruptions will be squarely Earth directed.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: tazweiss on February 04, 2014, 11:11:00 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it the CMEs that give us the problem?  Aren't those the cause of the EMPs? If that is the case them wouldn't a solar flare pointing directly at the earth miss us?  Kind of like failing to lead your shot when duck hunting.  Unless they've taken that into account when they say "Pointing directly at the earth."
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on February 04, 2014, 04:27:10 PM
The answer is yes and no. It is the CME that takes some time to reach the Earth that interacts with the magnetsoshepere to produce the EMP. They travel at speeds from 20km/s to 3200km/s so they can take from a few hours to a few days to reach the earth. The problem is that they are generally massive so if the flare is pointed at us we will likely be impacted by the CME.

To complicate matters large X-class flare can give off massive bursts of X rays and UV radiation. A massive burst could destroy communication satellites and bring down GPS within a few minutes of the flare.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on February 25, 2014, 06:36:49 AM
X-FLARE! Returning sunspot AR1967 unleashed a powerful X4.9-class (http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html?PHPSESSID=doqp9f7rv2388m17v2g073b7u4) solar flare on Feb. 25th at  00:49 UTC. This is the most intense flare of 2014 so far, and one of the most intense of the current solar cycle. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the  extreme ultraviolet flash:
Although this flare is impressive, its effects are mitigated by the location of the blast site--near the sun's southeastern limb, and not facing Earth. Indeed, a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) which raced away from the sun shortly after the flare appears set to miss our planet:
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on February 27, 2014, 07:07:20 PM
The CME from the above flare is hitting a glancing blow to the Earth at this time causing a moderate geomagnetic storm. It is thought that it will last for up to 24 hours so check the sky later tonight. The closer to midnight the better.

The sunspot AR1967 has been around the sun a couple of times and is now renamed AR1990.  It is slowly turning towards the Earth and there is a 70% Chance of a  M-class flare and a 30% chance of a X-class flare in the next 72 hours. Also there is a 55% chance of a severe geomagnetic storm at high latitudes in the next 24 hours so stay tuned.

Check out the scale of the flare in comparison to the size of the Earth in the photo from spaceweather.com
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Henry on February 27, 2014, 07:33:03 PM
I follow the sun activity on " earth changes media" and it looks so far like the sun will be active (flares)  just the way they were predicting for last year. We already had few close calls.
Henry
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: tazweiss on February 28, 2014, 11:55:31 AM
I just read somewhere that if this last flare had happened a couple of hours earlier, most of the world would be sitting in the dark right now.  Apparently it was an X class 4.9 and we just dodged a bullet.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: above all, adapt on February 28, 2014, 06:04:19 PM
Thank you for the updates guys!!
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on March 30, 2014, 09:46:46 AM
A CME from another X-class flare may give us a glancing blow on April 1st. There is also a 55% chance of an M class and a 20% chance of another X class flare this weeekend.

From Spaceweather.com:
“FLARE:  The magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2017 erupted yesterday, March 29th, producing an impulsive X1-class solar flare.  Ionizing radiation from the flare produced electrical currents in Earth's upper atmosphere and a ripple in Earth's magnetic field detected by magnetometers across the dayside of our planet.  Read more about this rare "magnetic crochet" and the possibility of more X-flares this weekend on today's edition of http://spaceweather.com.”

Now these induced currents are induced in our atmosphere while the flare is taking place taking only 8 minutes to reach the Earth not a few days as in the case of a CME.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: wild_E on March 30, 2014, 11:37:44 AM
Which weekend? You posted this Sunday so are you saying this very weekend or the one coming?

Please clarify for others, important messages should  be made clearer, thank you in advance for your clarifying response.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on March 30, 2014, 12:18:01 PM
This weekend, not next weekend, not next weekend. Today. :)
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on April 19, 2014, 11:16:18 AM
In the next 48 hours there we can expect significant auroral activity, 75% chance at higher latitudes and a 10% chance of severe magnetic storms at mid latitudes. This is a rest of four separate CME's that the Sun produced this week.  For more information go to http://spaceweather.com/
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on April 25, 2014, 12:33:06 AM
Well the Sun is not as quiet  as we thought.  There was just (about 4 hours ago)  a massive X1 Flare. Luckily it was on the limb and not directed at Earth. Even so there were short radio blackouts on the day side of the Earth.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on April 26, 2014, 12:06:46 AM
Looks like the CME from this massive flare will miss all the inner planets.  Again we were lucky.  :)
Title: Solar Flares Disrupt Communications on Earth, Could Send Shockwave on Friday 13
Post by: kelee877 on June 12, 2014, 04:23:33 AM






The sun has had three major solar flares on its surface in the past two days that have affected communications on Earth and could send a shockwave through Earth this Friday, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The “solar events” caused brief blackouts in high frequency communications when they struck, twice on Tuesday morning and once this morning, all between the hours of 7 a.m. and 9 a.m. EDT.

Solar flares are bursts of radiation on the sun’s surface. The disturbance to Earth’s atmosphere can disrupt GPS and communications signals, according to NASA (http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/sun-emits-3-x-class-flares-in-2-days/index.html#.U5i1WPldXmt).
One of the flares created a “coronal mass ejection” that actually could come into contact with Earth on Friday, according to NOAA (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). The ejection is essentially a huge cloud of plasma that could hit the Earth and cause a shock wave, affecting communications systems. If an ejection were to hit Earth on Friday, scientists expect it would only cause a minor geo-magnetic storm, according to NOAA.
The flares were observed by NASA, which posted stunning photos and videos of the events on its website.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2014/06/solar-flares-disrupt-communications-on-earth-could-send-shockwave-on-friday-the-13th (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2014/06/solar-flares-disrupt-communications-on-earth-could-send-shockwave-on-friday-the-13th/)
Title: Re: Solar Flares Disrupt Communications on Earth, Could Send Shockwave on Friday 13
Post by: kelee877 on June 12, 2014, 07:12:42 AM
Could Friday the 13th cause havoc to mobile phone signals? Impact of massive solar flare is expected to hit Earth tomorrow - and it could disrupt satellites


Three large solar flares over the last two days have released a huge cloud of particles from the sun which could knock out satellites and communication systems on Earth.

A 'coronal mass ejection' (CME), a huge cloud of irradiated particles and a magnetic shockwave, could strike the planet on Friday, damaging satellites and knocking out communications.

The three solar flares already caused brief disruptions to high frequency communications, such as radio broadcasts and aircraft communications, when they struck yesterday and twice on Tuesday.The sun emitted two X-grade solar flares on Tuesday morning at 7.42am and 8.52am - X being the most powerful kind of solar flare - and a third X-class flare early yesterday.

Solar flares are largely harmless, as Earth's atmosphere absorbs most of the harmful particles they emit. However they can cause satellites to malfunction, and disrupt the layer of atmosphere some communications pass through, causing interruptions.
 But if the CME strikes, then the damage could be far more severe. CME's can cause huge electrical surges, knocking out power grids and causing pylon cables to overload and snap.

Events on this scale are unlikely, as the NOAA says the CME due on Friday will only strike a 'glancing blow', but satellites could be affected, leading to a drop in mobile phone signal.

The last major CME to hit Earth came in 1859 when compasses were knocked out as Earth's magnetic field was disrupted.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2656010/Could-Friday-13th-phones-GPS-devices-knocked-sun-Impact-massive-solar-flare-expected-hit-Earth-tomorrow-disrupt-communications-satellites.html#ixzz34QFbVfrO (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2656010/Could-Friday-13th-phones-GPS-devices-knocked-sun-Impact-massive-solar-flare-expected-hit-Earth-tomorrow-disrupt-communications-satellites.html#ixzz34QFbVfrO)

Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=bBOTTqvd0r3Pooab7jrHcU&u=MailOnline) | DailyMail on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=bBOTTqvd0r3Pooab7jrHcU&u=DailyMail)
Title: No news is good news.
Post by: icrcc on August 13, 2014, 11:54:35 AM
It has been quiet for the last month astronomically which of course is very good news for us. There are still lots of active sunspots but they all seem to be minor and pose little or no threat. Let's hope it stays that way.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: Ranger2012 on August 13, 2014, 05:57:42 PM
It tis, but a lull in the storm, 2015 will be the next threat for CME's.  >:D
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on August 22, 2014, 10:57:34 PM
A good article on preparing for EMP can be found at:


http://www.prepperfortress.com/getting-prepared-for-an-electromagnetic-pulse-attack-or-severe-solar-storm/
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on September 10, 2014, 10:37:53 AM
Good chance of auroral activity on Sept 12th as a CME is expected to deliver a glancing but potent blow to Earth's magnetic field. SpaceWeather.com states "The storm could reach moderate intensity (G2-class) with auroras visible across northern-tier US states such as Maine, Michigan, and Minnesota." The Flare that produced the CME was of very long duration, almost six hours of eruptions in total.

More details at: http://spaceweather.com/

Title: X class flare
Post by: icrcc on September 10, 2014, 06:10:32 PM
The same sunspot, AR2158 which is now pointed directly at Earth Just released a X class flare.

According to Spaceweather.com:

"X-FLARE: Active sunspot AR2158 erupted on Sept. 10th, producing a strong X1.6-class solar flare. Because the sunspot is directly facing Earth, this is a geoeffective event. HF radio blackouts and other communications disturbances have already been observed on the day-lit side of Earth. Stay tuned to http://spaceweather.com for more information and updates about the possibility of an Earth-directed CME and geomagnetic storms in the days ahead."
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on September 11, 2014, 10:01:40 AM
A pair od CME's from sunspot AR2158 will impact the earth this weekend. The second CME released from yesterdays X class is travelling very fast at 3750 km/s.   Spaceweather.com is predicting a 79% chance of a severe geomagnetic storm at high latitudes and a 20%  chance of a severe geomagnetic storm at mid latitudes within the next 48 hours. They also predict a 40% chance of another X class flare.  While these CME's are nothing to be worried about we should get a good light show if the skies are clear.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on September 30, 2014, 02:46:37 PM
Increased chance of flares in the next couple of days as sunspot AR2177 turns towards Earth. There is a high potential for both M and X class flares.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on October 20, 2014, 12:27:01 PM
The big sunspot AR2192 is turning towards the Earth. It has already released one X class flare and is definitely one to keep an eye on in the next couple of days.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on December 20, 2014, 12:58:13 AM
It has been relatively quiet for a while however sunspot 2242 erupted with an X-class flare about 20 minutes ago. It looks like a CME will be following in the next few days. No need to panic as it was less than 2.0 on the X-class scale.

http://spaceweather.com/
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on March 11, 2015, 05:24:47 PM
Today there was an X class solar fare from sunspot AR2297.  This sunspot has been very active all week but today's was a really big one. On March 11th at 16:22 UT (09:22 PDT), Earth orbiting-satellites detected an X2-class flare. There was an associated  radio black out for frequencies below 10Mhz.


http://spaceweather.com/
Title: Another X class flare
Post by: icrcc on May 06, 2015, 02:08:24 PM
X-FLARE: Emerging sunspot AR2339 unleashed an intense X2-class solar flare on May 5th at approximately 22:11 UT. Radiation from the flare caused strong radio blackouts on the Pacific side of Earth, interfering with communications at frequencies below ~20 MHz. The blast also hurled a CME into space, but not toward Earth. This event could herald a sustained period of high solar activity, as AR2339 appears to be large and explosive. Check http://spaceweather.com for more information and updates.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: NObshere on August 19, 2015, 10:47:42 AM
  Did anyone get to see the awesome northern lights show on Monday night? They filled the sky,should have filmed it but rum and thinking don't mix outside around the fire with friends,,,lol
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: icrcc on August 19, 2015, 11:15:16 AM
I missed them. Actually I haven't seen any around here at all for a couple of months.
Title: Re: Solar Flares and CME's.
Post by: grizly1 on August 21, 2015, 10:33:46 AM
Was on Mount adziza ńear iskut bc they were awesome